Trends, Random Walks and Persistence: An Empirical Study of Disaggregated U.S. Industrial Production
نویسنده
چکیده
Unit-root and variance-ratio tests are used to examine the trend properties and degree of persistence of industrial production in U.S. industries and comparable aggregates during the post World War I1 period. The evidence from unit-root tests suggests that less than one-half of these industries have output which may be characterized as a random walk. The variance-ratio test results generally support this conclusion. Consistent with standard economic theory, fluctuations in durable-goods industries are less persistent than in nondurable goods industries. Finally, tests find relatively greater persistence in the aggregate industrial production data.
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